China is increasingly likely to take new action to bolster growth, economists said, after figures released on Friday showed that inflation in the country remains near its lowest levels in five years.

香港——上周五公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，中國(guó)的通脹率仍然接近五年來的最低水平。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家表示，中國(guó)采取新舉措來促進(jìn)增長(zhǎng)的可能性越來越大。

Sluggish economic growth and falling prices for oil and other key commodities are resulting in weakening inflation in some of the world’s biggest economies. On Wednesday, data from the eurozone highlighted the risk of deflation after prices fell 0.2 percent in December, turning negative for the first time since 2009, during the global financial crisis.

經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)低迷，石油和其他主要大宗商品價(jià)格下跌，導(dǎo)致全球最大的一些經(jīng)濟(jì)體通脹下降。上周三，歐元區(qū)的數(shù)據(jù)顯示去年12月的價(jià)格水平下降了0.2%，是自2009年全球金融危機(jī)以來第一次出現(xiàn)負(fù)增長(zhǎng)，突顯了通縮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

In China, prices are falling because of weak domestic demand and the downturn in commodity markets. For example, prices for coal, iron ore and copper are at their lowest levels in at least five years, and China is the world’s biggest consumer of all three.

在中國(guó)，價(jià)格下降的原因是國(guó)內(nèi)需求疲軟，以及大宗商品市場(chǎng)低迷。例如，煤炭、鐵礦石和銅的價(jià)格處于至少五年來的最低水平，而對(duì)于這三種大宗商品，中國(guó)都是全球最大的消費(fèi)國(guó)。

Consumer prices in China rose a meager 1.5 percent in December from a year earlier, the official statistics agency said Friday. The slight uptick from November’s 1.5 percent increase was because of a spike in prices of fresh fruit and vegetables. Producer prices continued to fall for the 34th consecutive month, declining 3.3 percent from a year earlier, driven by declining commodity prices.

上周五，官方統(tǒng)計(jì)機(jī)構(gòu)表示，12月中國(guó)居民消費(fèi)價(jià)格較上年同期小幅上揚(yáng)了1.5%。11月的增幅是1.4%，這種小幅上揚(yáng)得益于新鮮水果和蔬菜價(jià)格的上漲。在大宗商品價(jià)格下降帶動(dòng)下，生產(chǎn)者價(jià)格連續(xù)第34個(gè)月下跌，較上年同期下降了3.3%。

The easing inflationary pressure gives the central bank more room to attempt to lift growth and experiment with financial liberalization. In November, the central bank, the People’s Bank of China, cut benchmark interest rates for the first time since the summer of 2012. Analysts expect more rate cuts to follow in the coming months, as China’s economy is forecast to have grown in 2014 at its slowest pace in over two decades. Final figures for last year’s gross domestic product are scheduled to be released on Jan. 20.

通脹壓力的緩解，讓央行在嘗試促增長(zhǎng)和實(shí)驗(yàn)金融自由化上獲得了更多空間。11月份，中國(guó)人民銀行，即中國(guó)的央行，自2012年以來第一次下調(diào)基準(zhǔn)利率。分析師預(yù)期，未來幾個(gè)月還會(huì)宣布進(jìn)一步降息，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)2014年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率有可能是20年來最慢的。中國(guó)去年國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)的最終數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)計(jì)將于1月20日公布。

he growth outlook varies considerably across the world’s major economies. The recovery in the United States continues to see strong growth and declining unemployment, but Japan is in a recession and the eurozone economy grew at an anemic 0.2 percent annualized pace in the third quarter compared with the second quarter.

全球各主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體的增長(zhǎng)前景存在著相當(dāng)大的差異。美國(guó)的復(fù)蘇將繼續(xù)推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)和失業(yè)率下降，日本則處于經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退之中，而在歐元區(qū)，第三季度與第二季度相比，經(jīng)濟(jì)的年化增長(zhǎng)率只有區(qū)區(qū)0.2%。

In China, the picture is more complicated. The economy is expected to have grown last year at its slowest annual pace since 1990, but forecast at 7.4 percent, the increase in China’s G.D.P. remains the fastest of any major economy.

中國(guó)的情況則比較復(fù)雜。預(yù)期去年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是自1990年以來最緩慢的，但預(yù)測(cè)會(huì)達(dá)到7.4%，中國(guó)的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的增長(zhǎng)仍然是主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體中最快的。

But the continued weak price increases signal a potential risk that China could tip into deflation, where an economy becomes trapped in broad and persistent price declines that depresses spending and curtails employment, curbing overall growth.

但價(jià)格上漲的持續(xù)疲軟是一個(gè)信號(hào)，表明中國(guó)可能會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)向通貨緊縮。這是指一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的價(jià)格普遍持續(xù)下滑，導(dǎo)致開支被壓縮，就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)受限制，整體經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)遭到抑制。

Wary of these risks, economists generally expect the central bank to respond with more interest rate cuts. They are divided, however, over whether this would also include a move to allow banks to lend out more of the cash that they are currently required to hold on reserve — a reduction of the so-called reserve requirement ratio.

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對(duì)這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)保持著警惕，他們普遍預(yù)期央行將推出更多的降息舉措，來減小這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。但對(duì)于是否也應(yīng)該讓銀行更多放貸，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的意見并不統(tǒng)一。目前，銀行的一部分可貸出資金以存款準(zhǔn)備金的形式存在，降低準(zhǔn)備金率可以帶來更多貸款。

“Chinese authorities will need to use both structural reform measures as well as monetary policy tools to head off the risk of deflation, especially when domestic demand remains weak and commodity and energy prices continue to fall,” he wrote, adding that such structural measures could include making China’s water, energy and utility prices more market driven.

“中國(guó)當(dāng)局將會(huì)需要使用結(jié)構(gòu)性改革措施，以及貨幣政策工具，來阻止通縮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，特別是在國(guó)內(nèi)需求依然疲軟，大宗商品和能源價(jià)格繼續(xù)下降的時(shí)候，”他寫道。他稱這種結(jié)構(gòu)性措施可能包括更多地讓市場(chǎng)來驅(qū)動(dòng)中國(guó)的水、能源和公用事業(yè)價(jià)格。

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