Now, for those of you who aren’t techno-libertarians, Bitcoin is supposed to be a visual currency you can use to buy things online. Except it's not really a currency, and you can’t really buy that much with it. It’s more like a dotcom stock - circa 1999.

如今，不是技術自由主義者的人認為，比特幣應是可以用于網上購物的虛擬貨幣。只是它并不是真正的貨幣，你也不能真正使用它來購買太多東西。比特幣更像一支1999年前后的網絡公司股票。

See, in just the last month, one Bitcoin has gone from closing at a then-record US$192 to reaching $788 on Monday. It then opened at $502 on Tuesday, before briefly rocketing up to $900, and ultimately falling to $646. Just your average 80 percent price swing. That’s totally normal for currencies, if you multiply their biggest swing by 80.

看，就在上個月，1比特幣在周一從收盤時當時的最高點192美元升至788美元。周二開盤502美元，隨后短暫地飆升至900美元，最后又跌到646美元。只有平均80%的價格波動。對貨幣來說，這是完全正常的，如果你把貨幣最大的波動幅度乘以80的話。

You can kind of see these absurd price moves in the chart. But only kind of, because the vertical up-and-downs have come so fast that they've blurred into each other. It’s almost as if Bitcoin doesn’t have a single price at any one time, but rather a range of possible prices that depend on the observer. We can see this a little better if we zoom in on just the last two months. Bitcoin prices were pretty flat from the end of September through early October, but then (relatively at least) doubled slowly. Then they doubled quickly. And then even quicker - before falling fast. Not exactly a stable store of value.

你可以通過圖表略微了解這種荒唐的價格變化，但只是略微，因為垂直漲跌線的變化如此迅速，彼此已經重疊而模糊?？雌饋肀忍貛潘坪踉谌魏螘r候都沒有單一價格，而是一系列可能的價格，這取決于觀察者。如果我們只放大觀察過去兩個月的情況，能更清楚地明白這一點。從9月底到10月初，比特幣的價格相當平穩，但隨后(至少比較)緩慢倍增，后來迅速倍增，再后來更快-進接著快速下跌。完全不是穩定的價值儲存手段。

See, the idea behind Bitcoin is to create a decentralized currency that central banks can’t inflate and governments can’t tax. Basically, digital gold. And like actual gold, the only way to get new Bitcoins is to “mine” for them. That involves running a computationally-taxing programme on your computer that mostly generates gibberish, but maybe, just maybe, some Bitcoins, too. The key, though, is that mining for more of the virtual currency doesn’t create more of it. That’s because there’s a predetermined number of Bitcoins.

瞧，比特幣背后的設想是創造一種分散化貨幣，各國央行不能讓其升值，各國政府也不能對其征稅。它基本上是一種電子黃金。與真正的黃金一樣，獲得新比特幣的唯一方式是“開采"它們。這要求在你的電腦上運行一種計算繁雜的程序，該程序大多數情況下生成無意義的數據，但可能，只是可能，也同時生成一些比特幣。然而，問題的關鍵是，開采出更多這種虛擬貨幣并不代表可以制造出更多比特幣，這是因為比特幣的數量是預先確定的。

Specifically, there are around 12 million today, and there will be 21 million in 2040 - and no more after that. Of course, this limited supply means Bitcoin should tend to increase in value against the dollar. But only tend to. See, its deflation means Bitcoin prices will go up and down quite violently.

具體地說，現在大約有120萬比特幣，20年將達到210萬-此后不會再增加。當然，這種限量供應意味著比特幣易于對美元升值。不過只是易于，其通縮趨勢意味著比特價格會劇上漲或下跌。

Think about it this way. The supply of Bitcoins can’t increase much to meet increased demand, so increased demand will make prices soar. And soaring prices will make early adopters try to cash out their winnings - which will send prices crashing back down.

這樣來理解比特幣：比特幣供應量無法增加太多，從而無法滿足增加的需求，因此增加的需求會使其價格飆升。飆升的價格又會導致早期接受者試圖將贏利套現，這樣又會使價格狂跌回去。