談一談上半年我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的含金量(節(jié)選)

今年上半年，我國經(jīng)濟(jì)實現(xiàn)了6.3%的增長，國民經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)運行在合理區(qū)間，民生福祉不斷改善，轉(zhuǎn)型升級穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)，發(fā)展后勁持續(xù)增強(qiáng)，經(jīng)濟(jì)高質(zhì)量發(fā)展取得新的進(jìn)展，為實現(xiàn)全年經(jīng)濟(jì)社會發(fā)展預(yù)期目標(biāo)奠定了較好基礎(chǔ)。6.3%的增長速度，是在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易增速放緩和我國經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力加大的情況下，通過深化供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革、創(chuàng)新宏觀調(diào)控、優(yōu)化營商環(huán)境、大規(guī)模減稅降費、激發(fā)市場主體活力而實現(xiàn)的，是一個來之不易的增速。同時，6.3%的增速在全球主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體中位居前列，而且這是就業(yè)總體平穩(wěn)、物價基本穩(wěn)定、質(zhì)量不斷提高的增長，是可持續(xù)的增長、有后勁的增長，體現(xiàn)了總體平穩(wěn)、穩(wěn)中有進(jìn)態(tài)勢，具有成色高、含金量足的特征。

一、生產(chǎn)需求穩(wěn)定增長，發(fā)展韌性明顯增強(qiáng)

今年上半年，按照中央經(jīng)濟(jì)工作會議精神和《政府工作報告》部署，積極的財政政策、穩(wěn)健的貨幣政策和就業(yè)優(yōu)先政策有效實施，更高水平、更大力度對外開放不斷深化，大規(guī)模減稅降費扎實落地，企業(yè)融資成本逐步降低，有力有效應(yīng)對內(nèi)外部挑戰(zhàn)，我國經(jīng)濟(jì)在高基數(shù)基礎(chǔ)上實現(xiàn)了較快增長，經(jīng)濟(jì)運行保持在合理區(qū)間。考生如果怕自己錯過考試報名時間和考試時間的話，可以 免費預(yù)約短信提醒，屆時會以短信的方式提醒大家報名和考試時間。

經(jīng)濟(jì)增速位居世界前列。對于一個大型經(jīng)濟(jì)體來說，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長速度與經(jīng)濟(jì)總量有很大關(guān)系，總量越大，基數(shù)越高，實現(xiàn)高增長越難。2018年我國經(jīng)濟(jì)總量超過90萬億元，按年平均匯率折算達(dá)到13.6萬億美元，穩(wěn)居世界第二位，占世界經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的比重接近16%。在較高的經(jīng)濟(jì)總量基礎(chǔ)上，今年上半年國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值同比增長6.3%，繼續(xù)保持中高速增長。從全球范圍看，我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速位居世界主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體前列，在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長趨緩的大背景下格外亮眼，繼續(xù)成為推動世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的重要引擎。而且，以這樣的增長速度計算，我們一年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增量就相當(dāng)于一個中等規(guī)模發(fā)達(dá)國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)總量。在國際環(huán)境復(fù)雜嚴(yán)峻、國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力較大的情況下，我國經(jīng)濟(jì)能夠繼續(xù)保持6%以上增長，表明我國完全有條件、有能力、有信心應(yīng)對各種風(fēng)險挑戰(zhàn)，實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會發(fā)展主要目標(biāo)。

產(chǎn)業(yè)持續(xù)發(fā)展。鄉(xiāng)村振興戰(zhàn)略深入實施，農(nóng)業(yè)供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革積極推進(jìn)，夏糧生產(chǎn)喜獲豐收，農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)形勢較好。上半年，第一產(chǎn)業(yè)增加值同比增長3.0%。夏糧產(chǎn)量2835億斤，比上年增加59億斤，增產(chǎn)2.1%，與歷史產(chǎn)量最高的2017年持平;夏糧單產(chǎn)每畝359公斤，比上年增長3.5%。大規(guī)模減稅降費深入推進(jìn)，金融對實體經(jīng)濟(jì)支持力度加大，經(jīng)營環(huán)境逐步改善，有效緩解工業(yè)生產(chǎn)壓力。上半年，規(guī)模以上工業(yè)增加值同比增長6.0%;41個大類行業(yè)中，39個行業(yè)增加值保持同比增長;605種主要工業(yè)產(chǎn)品中，有366種產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量實現(xiàn)同比增長，增長面達(dá)60.5%。服務(wù)業(yè)持續(xù)較快增長，轉(zhuǎn)型升級加速推進(jìn)，上半年服務(wù)業(yè)增加值同比增長7.0%，明顯快于工業(yè)增速;服務(wù)業(yè)商務(wù)活動指數(shù)均位于53.0%以上的較高景氣區(qū)間。

需求穩(wěn)中有增。我國擁有近14億人口，中等收入群體規(guī)模世界最大，市場空間巨大，加之適應(yīng)居民需求的有效供給逐步增多，為消費擴(kuò)大創(chuàng)造了良好條件。上半年，社會消費品零售總額同比增長8.4%，教育、健康、養(yǎng)老、體育、旅游等領(lǐng)域服務(wù)消費增勢喜人。清明節(jié)、勞動節(jié)假日期間全國旅游人數(shù)、旅游收入均保持兩位數(shù)增長。聚焦短板加快重大項目建設(shè)，消除民間投資隱性障礙，推進(jìn)制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級，投資增長趨穩(wěn)。上半年，固定資產(chǎn)投資(不含農(nóng)戶)同比增長5.8%，其中制造業(yè)投資和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資分別增長3.0%和4.1%。我國堅持多邊主義，堅定維護(hù)自由貿(mào)易，與世界各國經(jīng)貿(mào)往來穩(wěn)步擴(kuò)大。上半年，貨物進(jìn)出口總額增長3.9%，其中出口增長6.1%，保持較快增長。

The Value of China’s Economic Growth in the First Half of 2019

In the first half of this year, China’s economy grew by 6.3% and continued to operate within a reasonable range. Public wellbeing improved continuously, transformation and upgrading progressed steadily, the stamina of development continued to strengthen, and new progress was made toward high-quality growth, thereby laying sound foundations for meeting this year’s economic and social development targets. The growth rate of 6.3% did not come easily, but was achieved despite decelerating global economic and trade growth and mounting downward pressure on China’s economy. It was a result of our efforts to boost supply-side structural reform, create new methods of macro-control, improve the business environment, slash taxes and fees, and unleash the vitality of market entities. Ranking high among the world’s major economies, this growth rate comes from overall stable employment, basically steady prices, and constantly enhanced economic quality, thus being both sustainable and enduring. Featuring a high level of quality and value, this growth rate shows that China’s economy remains stable overall with a positive trend.

I. Production demand grew steadily, and development became significantly more resilient.

During the first half of this year, in line with the guiding principles of the Central Economic Work Conference and the arrangements of the Report on the Work of the Government, we effectively implemented a proactive fiscal policy, a prudent monetary policy, and an employment-first policy, opened up at a higher level and with greater intensity, took solid steps to slash taxes and fees, and gradually reduced enterprise financing costs. Taking a strong and effective stance against internal and external challenges, China’s economy grew rapidly from a large base figure, and continued to operate within a reasonable range.

1. China’s economic growth ranked among the highest in the world.

For a large economy, its growth rate is closely related to its size – the larger the size and base figure, the more difficult it is to achieve rapid growth. In 2018, China’s GDP exceeded 90 trillion yuan, or US$13.6 trillion as calculated at the yearly average exchange rate, ranking second globally and accounting for nearly 16% of the world economy. Based on the relatively large size of its economy, China’s GDP saw a year-on-year increase of 6.3% in the first half of this year, maintaining a medium-high growth rate. China’s economic growth ranked high among the world’s major economies, which was particularly striking against a backdrop of decelerating global economic growth, growth for which China continued to be an important engine. This growth rate means that China’s economic growth in a single year is equal to the entire economy of a medium-sized developed country. In a complex and daunting international environment and facing considerable downward pressure on the domestic economy, China’s economy has been able to maintain a growth rate of more than 6%, indicating that China has the conditions, ability, and confidence to surmount all risks and challenges and achieve its main goals for economic and social development.

2. Industries continued to develop.

The rural revitalization strategy was fully implemented, agricultural supply-side structural reform was actively advanced, and agricultural production remained favorable with a bumper summer grain harvest. In the first half of this year, the value added of the primary industry saw a year-on-year increase of 3%. The summer grain output was 141.75 million metric tons, an increase of 2.95 million metric tons or 2.1% over last year, equaling the record high of 2017. The output of summer grain per mu (0.067 hectare) was 359 kilograms, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. We worked hard to slash taxes and fees, intensified financial support for the real economy, and gradually improved the business environment, which effectively eased pressure on industrial production. In the first half of this year, the value added of industrial enterprises, each with an annual income of 20 million yuan or over and hereafter referred as large-scale enterprises, saw a year-on-year increase of 6%; 39 out of 41 major types of industries maintained year-on-year increases in value added; 366 out of 605 major industrial products, or 60.5%, achieved year-on-year increases in output. The service industry continued to grow quickly while transformation and upgrading also accelerated; its value added in the first half of this year saw a year-on-year increase of 7%, which was remarkably faster than that of the manufacturing industry; and its business activity index flourished at above 53%.

3. Consumer demand grew amidst stability.

With a population of nearly 1.4 billion, China is home to the world’s largest middle-income group and boasts a huge market. In addition, we have gradually increased effective supply according to consumer demand in order to create favorable conditions for the expansion of consumer spending. In the first half of this year, total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 8.4% year-on-year, with consumption of services such as education, health, elderly care, sports, and tourism growing strongly. The numbers of tourists and revenue from tourism during the Qingming Festival and May 1st Labor Day holiday periods both maintained double-digit growth. We focused our efforts on economic weaknesses to accelerate the development of major projects, removed invisible barriers to private investment, and promoted transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, thus stabilizing investment growth. In the first half of this year, investment in fixed assets (excluding that of rural households) grew by 5.8% year-on-year, with investment in the manufacturing sector and in infrastructure increasing by 3% and 4.1% respectively. China has upheld multilateralism, resolutely safeguarded free trade, and steadily developed economic and trade relationships with all countries. In the first half of this year, the total import and export of goods increased by 3.9%, with export maintaining the faster growth rate of 6.1%.

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