G20峰會(huì)是中美貿(mào)易摩擦的局點(diǎn)還是賽點(diǎn)?

駐馬來(lái)西亞大使白天在馬來(lái)西亞主流媒體發(fā)表署名文章

馬來(lái)西亞，2019年7月8日

在出席一場(chǎng)開齋節(jié)活動(dòng)時(shí)，一位媒體朋友問我：“G20峰會(huì)將是中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的局點(diǎn)還是賽點(diǎn)?”我笑著回答：“再等等看”。

上周，中國(guó)國(guó)家主席習(xí)近平同美國(guó)總統(tǒng)特朗普在大阪G20峰會(huì)期間會(huì)晤。兩國(guó)元首一致同意推進(jìn)以協(xié)調(diào)、合作、穩(wěn)定為基調(diào)的中美關(guān)系，同意在平等和相互尊重的基礎(chǔ)上重啟經(jīng)貿(mào)磋商。

特朗普總統(tǒng)表示，美方將不再對(duì)中國(guó)出口產(chǎn)品加征新關(guān)稅，愿意和中國(guó)加強(qiáng)合作，通過協(xié)商妥善解決兩國(guó)貿(mào)易平衡，為兩國(guó)企業(yè)提供公正待遇。消息傳出，讓高度關(guān)注中美貿(mào)易摩擦的人們長(zhǎng)長(zhǎng)吁了一口氣，似乎看到了一線曙光。

去年3月22日，美國(guó)打響中美貿(mào)易摩擦第一槍，特朗普簽署總統(tǒng)備忘錄，宣稱依據(jù)“301調(diào)查”結(jié)果，將對(duì)從中國(guó)進(jìn)口商品大規(guī)模征收關(guān)稅，并限制中國(guó)企業(yè)對(duì)美投資并購(gòu)。同年9月，正值中國(guó)傳統(tǒng)中秋佳節(jié)，美國(guó)宣布對(duì)中方2000億美元輸美商品征收10%關(guān)稅;中方迅速反擊，宣布對(duì)美國(guó)600億美元商品征收10%或5%關(guān)稅。自此，伴隨著美方不斷抬高要價(jià)，雙方打打談?wù)劊瑒∏榈雌鸱澜缫差I(lǐng)略了美方一幕幕出爾反爾的“變臉”大戲。

馬哈蒂爾總理所言極是：中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)是“兩個(gè)巨人打架，地上草石遭殃”。在經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化背景下，中美作為兩個(gè)最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，合則兩利，斗則俱傷，更關(guān)乎世界經(jīng)濟(jì)榮衰。由于中美經(jīng)貿(mào)摩擦前景不明，世界貿(mào)易組織已將2019年全球貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)速度預(yù)期由3.7%下調(diào)至2.6%。過去近兩年時(shí)間里，世界籠罩在這場(chǎng)史無(wú)前例的貿(mào)易摩擦陰云下，很多國(guó)家都憂心忡忡，擔(dān)心全球經(jīng)濟(jì)被拖入“衰退陷阱”。

就中方而言，這場(chǎng)貿(mào)易摩擦完全是被迫應(yīng)戰(zhàn)，是反擊經(jīng)濟(jì)霸凌之戰(zhàn)，維護(hù)自身核心利益和正當(dāng)發(fā)展權(quán)益之戰(zhàn)，也是捍衛(wèi)國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)秩序和自由貿(mào)易體系之戰(zhàn)。上個(gè)月，中國(guó)國(guó)務(wù)院新聞辦公室發(fā)表《關(guān)于中美經(jīng)貿(mào)磋商的中方立場(chǎng)》白皮書，全面闡明了中方對(duì)“貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)”問題的立場(chǎng)，我在此不再贅述，愿僅指出四點(diǎn)基本事實(shí)：

一，美方一手挑起對(duì)華貿(mào)易摩擦，本質(zhì)是借“公平貿(mào)易”之名，行“經(jīng)濟(jì)霸凌”之實(shí);手段是揮舞關(guān)稅“大棒”，推行單邊主義和保護(hù)主義;目的是服務(wù)“美國(guó)優(yōu)先”政策，脅迫中國(guó)放棄自身利益和發(fā)展權(quán)益。

二，美方適得其反，正為此付出慘痛代價(jià)：拉升了國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)成本，抬高了本國(guó)物價(jià)水平，降低了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度，阻礙了對(duì)華出口規(guī)模。根據(jù)福布斯網(wǎng)站最新統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，與2018年前4個(gè)月相比，美國(guó)石油出口減少24.9億美元，其中向中國(guó)出口從11%下降至2.6%;石油氣對(duì)華出口下降87%，減少6.4億美元;棉花對(duì)華出口下降48.33%，減少2.89億美元;大豆對(duì)華出口下降27.49%，減少7.1億美元。美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)反對(duì)貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)的聲浪此起彼伏，日益高漲。

三，美國(guó)低估了中國(guó)維護(hù)核心利益反擊經(jīng)濟(jì)霸凌的實(shí)力。作為世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體，中國(guó)擁有任何國(guó)家都不想失去的、也無(wú)可替代的龐大市場(chǎng)，擁有完整的產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈條，便利的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和良好的營(yíng)商環(huán)境。出口對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的拉動(dòng)作用持續(xù)減小，而消費(fèi)連續(xù)五年成為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)第一動(dòng)力，2018年對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)率達(dá)到76.2%。事實(shí)證明，從美方發(fā)起挑戰(zhàn)至今，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)非但沒有如美方預(yù)言那樣“垮掉”，反而保持持續(xù)健康發(fā)展的良好態(tài)勢(shì)。

四，捍衛(wèi)多邊貿(mào)易體系、建設(shè)開放型世界經(jīng)濟(jì)是“人間正道”。馬來(lái)西亞以貿(mào)易立國(guó)，2018年馬經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)外貿(mào)的依存度達(dá)到130%。維護(hù)一個(gè)公平、開放、透明的多邊貿(mào)易體系，對(duì)包括馬來(lái)西亞在內(nèi)的所有國(guó)家實(shí)現(xiàn)可持續(xù)發(fā)展至關(guān)重要。短期看，亞洲國(guó)家某些產(chǎn)業(yè)也許會(huì)成為美國(guó)和中國(guó)企業(yè)尋找進(jìn)口替代和生產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移的受益者，但長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)看，各個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體之間是一個(gè)整體，是全球價(jià)值鏈的組成部分，任何鏈條停擺，都會(huì)帶來(lái)整個(gè)體系的損失。以投機(jī)主義、僥幸心態(tài)來(lái)看待中美貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)，以為能夠幸免于難甚至從中獲利，是不切實(shí)際的想法。

習(xí)近平主席多次強(qiáng)調(diào)：“世界好，中國(guó)才好;中國(guó)好，世界才更好”。這正是中國(guó)提出“一帶一路”倡議的初衷和堅(jiān)持多邊主義的底氣所在。中國(guó)5000年文明倡導(dǎo)“和而不同”“求同存異”，我們從不把別國(guó)的發(fā)展視為對(duì)自己的威脅，決不為一己之私損害別國(guó)利益，更不會(huì)動(dòng)輒以“極限施壓”和“退群”“脫鉤”相要挾。我們?cè)敢獗终\(chéng)意和善意，在相互尊重、平等相待、誠(chéng)信守諾的基礎(chǔ)上同美方保持對(duì)話，爭(zhēng)取互利共贏的解決方案，為全球市場(chǎng)注入信心和活力，為世界經(jīng)濟(jì)和全球治理做出積極貢獻(xiàn)，通過合作而不是爭(zhēng)斗，讓中美兩個(gè)偉大的國(guó)家變得更加偉大，讓世界變得更加美好。但不論形勢(shì)如何發(fā)展變化，中國(guó)將堅(jiān)持做好自己的事，不斷深化改革，擴(kuò)大對(duì)外開放，保持經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)健康發(fā)展的良好態(tài)勢(shì)，并同世界形成更加良性的互動(dòng)，繼續(xù)扮演好世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)引擎的角色。

最后，我想告訴那位媒體朋友：中美貿(mào)易摩擦不是一場(chǎng)有規(guī)則、有裁判的公平比賽，而是美方單方挑起、中方被迫反擊的貿(mào)易沖突。中美兩國(guó)元首大阪會(huì)晤達(dá)成的積極共識(shí)令人鼓舞，我們期待美方后續(xù)以實(shí)際行動(dòng)，同中方相向而行，通過友好對(duì)話找到雙方都能接受的解決方案。如果這場(chǎng)貿(mào)易摩擦能夠得到順利解決，不論是對(duì)中美兩國(guó)還是對(duì)世界而言，無(wú)疑都是值得期待的事。

Is the G20 Summit a Game Point or the Match Point for the China-U.S. Trade Dispute?考生如果怕自己錯(cuò)過考試報(bào)名時(shí)間和考試時(shí)間的話，可以 免費(fèi)預(yù)約短信提醒，屆時(shí)會(huì)以短信的方式提醒大家報(bào)名和考試時(shí)間。

Chinese Ambassador H.E. Bai Tian Publishes the Signed Article on Malaysian Mainstream media

Malaysia 8 July 2019

Earlier at a Hari Raya event, I was asked by friend from media: Is the G20 summit a game point of the China-U.S. trade dispute, or the match point of it? I replied with a smile, “Let’s wait and see.”

Last week, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with U.S. President Donald Trump during the G20 Summit in Osaka. The two leaders agreed to promote the China-U.S. relations based on coordination, cooperation and stability, and to resume trade talks on the basis of equality and mutual respect.

President Trump also promised that the U.S. would not impose new tariffs on Chinese imports, and that the U.S. is willing to cooperate with China to properly settle the trade balance problem between the two countries through consultations, and provide fair treatments for enterprises from both countries. Long sighs of relief could be heard from all the people who have been paying close attention to the China-U.S. trade disputes, as this piece of news may be a ray of hope.

On 22 March last year, President Trump signed an executive memorandum to impose large scale tariffs on imports from China and restricted China companies from investing in the U.S., based on the result of “Section 301 investigation”. This was the first shot of China-U.S. trade disputes. In the September of the same year, during the Mid-Autumn festivals, the U.S. again abruptly announced plans to impose 10% tariffs on 200 billion USD of Chinese goods. China fought back swiftly, announcing 5% or 10% tariff on 60 billion USD of U.S. imports. Later on, with the U.S. side raising the stakes repeatedly, we have seen our fair share of fights and talks, highs and lows. The world has also watched a great drama of constant “face-changing” and backtracking by the U.S. side.

Prime Minister Tun Dr. Mahathir has rightly compared the China-U.S. trade war to the scenario where “two elephants fight, and the grass gets stomped”. China and the U.S., as the two largest economies in the global economy, will only thrive together in cooperation, or wither together in confrontation, with the world economy following the suit. Due to the uncertainty of the prospect of China-U.S. trade disputes, the WTO has lowered its forecast for global trade growth in 2019 from 3.7 percent to 2.6 percent. Over the past two years, with the dark cloud of “trade war” looming over the world, many countries are worried that the global economy would be dragged into the “recession trap”.

China was pulled into the trade war, with its back to the wall. For China, this is a war to combat economic bullying, a war to safeguard our legitimate right of development, and a war to safeguard the international rules and the multilateral trade system. Last month, the State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China issued a white paper entitled China’s Position on the China-U.S. Economic and Trade Consultations, which comprehensively elaborated on China’s position on the “trade disputes”, so I would not go into details here. Instead, I wish to point out four basic facts.

Firstly, the ultimate motive of the U.S. starting the trade war towards China is to bully the latter under the name of “fair trade”. The U.S., wielding its “club of tariff” and carrying the banner of unilateralism and protectionism, blatantly pursues the policy of “America First” and tries to coerce China into giving up its own interests and development rights.

Secondly, the U.S. decisions are counterproductive, and it is getting a taste of its own medicine. Due to the trade war, the domestic production costs and prices have raised significantly, and the economic growth of the U.S. has been hindered and the exports from the U.S. to China has scaled down. According to the latest statistics on the Forbes website, oil exports from the U.S. fell by 2.49 billion USD compared with the first four months of 2018, among which the exports to China fell from 11% to 2.6%. The LPG exports from the U.S. to China fell by 87%, decreasing 640 million USD. Cotton exports from the U.S. to China fell by 48.33%, decreasing 289 million USD. Soybean exports to China fell by 27.49%, decreasing 710 million USD. The objections against the trade war inside the U.S. have been making waves, and are only getting louder.

Thirdly, the U.S. has underestimated China’s determination and capacity to safeguard its core interests and to counter economic bullying. As the world’s second largest economy, China has a huge and irreplaceable domestic market that no country could bear to lose. China has its complete industry chain, advanced infrastructures and business-friendly environments. Consumption has become the main driver of China’s economic growth for five consecutive years, with a contribution rate of 76.2% to China’s economic growth in 2018, while the contribution rate of exports has been decreasing. As a matter of fact, instead of a total “collapse” as predicted by the U.S., the Chinese economy has maintained a good momentum of sustained and steady development.

Lastly, it is only right to defend the multilateral trading system and to build an open world economy. Malaysia is a pro-trade country with a highly globalized economy, with exports and imports of goods and services equivalent to about 130% of GDP in 2018. A fair, open and transparent international trade system is crucial to each country’s development and prosperity, including Malaysia. In short term, Asian countries like Malaysia may become the beneficiaries of production relocation or import substitute caused by the trade war. However in the long run, all Asian economies work as a part of the global value chain. Any break in the chain will cause systematic damage to all of us. It is an unrealistic idea to look at the China-U.S. trade war with opportunism or a fluke mind, hoping that any of us could survive or even profit from it.

As President Xi Jinping emphasized many times, “China will do well only when the world does well, and vice versa.” This is precisely why China proposed the Belt and Road Initiative and commits itself to the multilateralism. The five-thousand-year Chinese civilization has always advocated the idea of “harmony among differences” and “seeking common ground while reserving differences”. We have never regarded the development of other countries as threats to ourselves, and never harmed others’ interests for our own benefits, letting alone threating others with maximum pressure, quitting from responsibilities or decoupling. The Chinese side, with all our sincerity and goodwill, is willing to reach a mutually beneficial solution with the U.S. side through dialogues and discussions based on mutual respect, equality and integrity, and thus bestowing the global market with confidence and vitality. We are willing to cooperate with, not to fight with, the U.S. to make positive contributions to the world economy and global governance, making China and the U.S. greater and the world better. But wherever the chip falls, China will keep true to its own path. China will remain committed to the reform and opening up policy, and maintain a sound momentum of economic growth. China will foster a more positive dynamic with the world, and continue to function as an engine for the global development.

Finally, I want to tell that friend from media that, the China-U.S. trade dispute is not a fair game with rules and referees, but a trade conflict that the U.S. unilaterally provoked and China was forced to fight back. The consensus reached during the meeting between President Xi Jinping and U.S. president Donald Trump at the G20 Summit is encouraging. We look forward to the U.S. side living up to its words, to work with the Chinese side and to find a solution acceptable to both sides through friendly dialogue. For China, the U.S. and the world, an eventual solution to the trade dispute would definitely worth the wait.

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