The mortgage-rescue plan

抵押貸款救援計劃

Will the bail-out work?

救援計劃會奏效嗎?

Oct 3rd 2008 | NEW YORK, WASHINGTON, DC

From Economist.com

The bail-out becomes law after the House reverses its rejection. Money markets call for urgent attention

救援計劃在眾議院由否決變?yōu)橥ㄟ^后成了法案。貨幣市場亟需重點關切

“CRISES have the power to unite us in strange ways.” So said Steny Hoyer, the Democratic majority leader in the House of Representatives, in an article on Friday morning that pleaded for passage of the $700 billion bail-out plan. United they were. The House voted by a huge 263-171 margin for the bail-out, a dramatic reversal of the 228-205 rejection on Monday. On Friday October 3rd 172 Democrats backed the bill, up from 140; 91 Republicans did so, up from 65. As the Senate had already approved the bill, it was immediately signed by George Bush.考生如果怕自己錯過考試報名時間和考試時間的話，可以 免費預約短信提醒，屆時會以短信的方式提醒大家報名和考試時間。

“金融危機使我們以一種陌生的方式團結(jié)到一起。”美國眾議院多數(shù)黨(民主黨)領袖Steny Hoyer在周五早上一篇請求國會通過7000億救援方案的文章里如是說。他們確實團結(jié)到了一起。眾議院以263對171的大規(guī)模票數(shù)差距通過了救援計劃，這與周一的228對205否決形成了鮮明的對比。在周五(10月3日)的投票中，172位民主黨議員贊成，比周一上升了32人;91位共和黨人贊成，比周一上升了26人。因為參議院已經(jīng)批準了此項議案，所以很快就會被布什簽署(使之生效)。

The rejection on Monday was caused by conservative Republicans who said it was socialism, by Liberal Democrats who said it did not do enough for poor people, and fears by many that voters would fire them for bailing out Wall Street. The rejection triggered a plunge in stocks and a scramble to sweeten the bill. In the end numerous, mostly unrelated, items have been grafted on, from higher federal deposit-insurance limits to a tax exemption for wooden children’s arrows. The tide was turned because of that, nausea over market turmoil, news that non-farm employment sank by 159,000 in September (the steepest in five years) and because of furious business lobbying.

周一眾議院的否決主要是由于兩方面的原因，一是共和黨保守派人士認為這是社會主義行為;二是民主黨自由派人士認為此項方案對窮人幫助不足，并擔心選民因為其拯救華爾街而拋棄他們。周一的否決引發(fā)了股市的暴跌并促使政府迅速修改美化此項法案。最終，許多不相關的條款被加入其中，從更高的聯(lián)邦儲戶保險限制到兒童玩具工廠的免稅措施。投票形勢之所以改變，是因為眾議員不堪市場混亂，非農(nóng)勞動人口就業(yè)數(shù)九月下降159，000(這是五年來的最大降幅)的消息而且還有憤怒的商業(yè)團體游說的因素。

Now the real test comes: will it help? The Treasury is expected to take a week to set up the auctions for the first mortgage purchases, and the first purchases could therefore take place within weeks. Henry Paulson, the treasury secretary, could act sooner: he has the authority to buy mortgages from individual institutions or inject capital into them if they are nearing failure.

現(xiàn)在，真正的考驗到來了：這個法案是否會奏效呢?財政部計劃用一周的時間來準備安排第一筆購買抵押貸款資產(chǎn)的拍賣會，因此第一筆購買交易會在幾周內(nèi)完成。財長保爾森很快就會行動：他有權(quán)從私人機構(gòu)購買抵押貸款資產(chǎn)或是給瀕臨倒閉的機構(gòu)注資。

Speed is of the essence. Banks are loth to lend to each other, except at record punitive rates and for the shortest of periods. Most want their money back within a day. Massive liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve and other central banks have done little to unclog the pipes.

速度是極其重要的。銀行間極其不愿意互相拆借，除非對方能夠承受一個破紀錄的懲罰性的利率以及最短的期限。許多銀行希望他們借出的錢能夠在一天內(nèi)歸還。美聯(lián)儲及其它央行的大規(guī)模流動性資金注入并未使市場流動性不足的情況改善多少。

Worse, the availability of short-term loans to companies is shrinking at an alarming rate. The market for commercial paper has shrunk by around $600 billion since last summer, with almost $100 billion of the reduction coming in the past week alone. This hurts companies large and small. General Electric has had to raise new capital partly because of funding concerns. Retailers report problems financing purchases of holiday-season inventories. The head of AutoNation, a car dealer, told CNBC that “banks were looking for every excuse to say no…We’ve gone from a credit crunch to a credit panic.” Firms say that some banks are trying to invoke “market disruption” clauses to cut credit lines or raise the fees for renewing them, leaving corporate treasurers unsure how long they can pay employees or buy raw materials.

更糟的是，公司可使用的短期貸款正在以驚人的速度下降。商業(yè)票據(jù)市場自去年六月以來萎縮了約6000億美元，而僅在過去的一周里就減少了1000億美元。這對大大小小的公司都有傷害。通用電器不得不籌集新的資金，部分原因就是由于對融資的憂慮。零售商也報出其在購買假日季節(jié)物品的融資上也有問題。汽車銷售商AutoNation的老板告訴CNBC：”銀行在尋找各種理由對你的貸款申請說‘不’…我們已經(jīng)從信貸緊縮到信貸恐慌了。”銀行在竭力引用”市場混亂 “的條款來減小信貸或是提高費率以使其恢復元氣，但是這使得企業(yè)財務主管不能確定他們多久才能給雇員發(fā)工資或是多久才能去購買原材料。

The pain is reaching municipalities and states. Alabama’s Jefferson County is on the verge of bankruptcy. California’s governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, has reportedly given warning, in a letter to the Treasury, that his state is running out of cash to fund day-to-day operations and may need an emergency loan of $7 billion from the federal government.

這些狀況已經(jīng)波及各個州和自治市。阿拉巴馬州的杰弗遜郡已經(jīng)瀕臨破產(chǎn)。加州州長施瓦辛格據(jù)說已在一封給財政部長的信中發(fā)出警告：他的州維持日常運行的現(xiàn)金即將耗盡，需要從聯(lián)邦政府緊急貸款70億美元。

While the Troubled Asset Relief Programme, or TARP, may ultimately unfreeze the mortgage market, restore confidence to banks and restart lending, that may take too long for a far more pressing problem, the blockage in the money markets. Tellingly, the yield on short-term government debt-the most popular destination for investors seeking safety-barely budged after the vote. Bank-to-bank loan spreads fell only slightly. American stockmarkets gave up gains built up in the hours before the vote.

問題資產(chǎn)救援計劃(TARP)可能最終會解困抵押市場，重塑銀行信心并重新開始放貸，但是還需要很長時間來解決一個迫在眉睫的問題：貨幣市場的堵塞。非常說明問題的是，短期政府債券(投資者尋求安全的最流行的目的地)的收益在眾議院表決后變化不大。銀行間拆借利差只有略微下跌。美國股市最終將投票前數(shù)小時的積累的漲幅完全跌盡。

While the TARP may lift confidence, the timing and extent to which it boosts their capital will depend on the prices paid, which remain unclear. Moreover, the target is moving. Even if house prices stabilise soon, non-mortgage credit will go on deteriorating as the economy shrinks. Bank regulators will have their work cut out as failures mount among small and medium-sized lenders. More will seek sanctuary in the arms of stronger rivals. On Friday Wachovia threw itself at Wells Fargo, only four days after Citigroup had agreed to buy its banking operations in a government-backed deal. Citi threatened to sue.

在TARP可能提升信心的同時，它購買資本的時機和范圍程度依賴于支付的價格，而這價格尚未明朗。此外，目標也在轉(zhuǎn)移。即使房價很快企穩(wěn)，非抵押信貸會隨著經(jīng)濟下滑而繼續(xù)惡化。隨著倒閉風潮開始在小型和中型的銀行(借貸機構(gòu))中蔓延，銀行監(jiān)管者將會停止他們的工作。許多這樣的中小銀行會投身于大型銀行以尋求庇護。在政府的撮合下，花旗集團答應購買美聯(lián)銀行的銀行業(yè)務部門四天后，美聯(lián)銀行將其賣給富國銀行。花旗威脅將會提出訴訟。

The crisis is intensifying in Europe, where governments have been forced to prop up several banks in the past week. European leaders are due to meet this weekend to discuss forging a more co-ordinated response, possibly including a continent-wide bank-rescue fund. And doubts about solvency are spreading beyond banks. After a sharp drop this week in the share prices of large American insurers, such as MetLife and Prudential, they came under pressure to raise fresh capital as a bulwark against the storm.

歐洲的情況更糟。歐洲各國銀行在上周被迫注資支持幾家銀行。歐洲幾國領袖預定將在本周末會面商討出臺更加協(xié)調(diào)合作的應對措施，可能包括一個整個大陸范圍的銀行拯救基金。而對償付能力的疑慮已經(jīng)超出銀行范疇，在其它金融機構(gòu)也蔓延開來。在本周股價急劇下挫后，幾家大型美國保險商，例如MetLife 和 Prudential迫于壓力不得不募集新的資本作為防護堡壘來抵御風暴的襲擊。

Until the TARP shows results, the pressure remains on the Federal Reserve to contain the crisis. Ben Bernanke, the Fed chairman and the main driver behind the TARP’s creation, congratulated Congress for demonstrating the “government’s commitment to do what it takes to support and strengthen our economy”. His language was remarkably similar to what he used, as an academic, to describe Franklin D. Roosevelt’s attack on the Great Depression. Mr Bernanke made it clear that he included the Fed in that commitment: “We will continue to use all of the powers at our disposal to mitigate credit market disruptions and to foster a strong, vibrant economy.” The Fed has already expanded its balance sheet by around $600 billion since August, an amount not much smaller than the entire TARP, as it replaces evaporating private credit with central bank credit. The odds are high it will also cut its short-term interest rate, now 2%, to 1.5% either at or before its policy meeting at the end of October.

在TARP有效果前，美聯(lián)儲控制危機的壓力依然非常大。作為TARP出臺的主要推動者，美聯(lián)儲主席伯南克祝賀國會，因為這顯示了”政府為此所付出的正是支持和加強我們的經(jīng)濟。”伯南克的這番言語頗似他以前作為學者時，形容富蘭克林D.羅斯福總統(tǒng)抵御大蕭條舉措的論調(diào)。伯南克明確的是，他將美聯(lián)儲也置身這個”付出”之中：”我們會繼續(xù)自行使用我們所有的權(quán)力來減緩信貸市場的瓦解，并培育出一個強壯的，充滿活力的經(jīng)濟體。”自八月以來，美聯(lián)儲已將其資產(chǎn)負債表擴大了6000億美元(這是一個比整個TARP計劃小不了多少的數(shù)目)，這將會用中央銀行信貸來代替消失的私人信貸。美聯(lián)儲在十月底的政策會上或之前，下調(diào)短期利率(從現(xiàn)在的2%調(diào)至1.5%)的可能性很高。

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