Emerging markets

All fall down都跌了

Oct 9th 2008

From The Economist print edition

Firms in developing countries struggle to escape their roots發展中國家中的公司掙扎著逃命，考生如果怕自己錯過考試報名時間和考試時間的話，可以 免費預約短信提醒，屆時會以短信的方式提醒大家報名和考試時間。

STOCKMARKET bubbles often take a genuine improvement in economic orcorporate performance, and then vastly overestimate its effect. Equityinvestors in emerging markets must wonder if they have once again beensuckered into giving developing countries the benefit of the doubt.Prices have fallen by almost half this year. On October 6themerging-market shares recorded their biggest one-day fall in at least20 years, prompting all-too-familiar scenes of chaos followed byenforced inactivity, as trading at some bourses was suspended.

股市泡沫常常帶來真正的經濟或公司經營改進，接踵而來的是大規模過高估計其效果。新興市場的股市投資者肯定在疑問著他們是否又被騙入,因為發展中國家原來就是疑團。這些國家的股市今年已經下跌近一半。10月6日，新興市場的股價下跌創了20年來的最大跌幅，導致了人們太熟悉的混亂場面，跟著來到是強制性停止活動，例如在一些交易所停止了交易。

For bullish investors one attraction of emerging economies was thefact that they had started with better public finances andbalance-of-payments positions than in previous cycles. How resilientthose positions are is now being tested, as plunging commodity pricessap export earnings and capital flows dry up. Even sound economies maystill be dragged down. As Stephen Jen, an economist at Morgan Stanley,points out, in a crisis “bad things happen to good countries”.

對于那些看好的投資人來講，與以前各次循環相比，此次新興經濟一個吸引人地方在于他們以更好的公共債務及收支平衡作為起始。當大宗商品價格暴跌，使得出口收入受到影響，且資本流處于枯竭，這些國家的那些狀況有強勁目前正受到考驗。即使那些最健康的經濟也可能被拉下水。大摩的經濟學家Stephen Jen指出，在危機中“好的國家會發生壞事情”。

Equity investors’ enthusiasm also reflected a more novel idea—thatthe quality of emerging-market companies had improved. Rather than anold guard of conglomerates with hazy ownership and accounting, thethesis ran, there was a new generation of large, well run, globallycompetitive “mega-cap” firms. Indeed, these might even be less riskythan their homelands’ governments. And just as the Dutch economy haslittle bearing on Royal Dutch Shell’s share price, or the Britisheconomy on Vodafone’s, the hope was that these firms might eventuallytranscend their domestic markets.

股票投資人的興高采烈也反映了更新穎的看法—新興市場里的公司質量已經改善了。相當普遍的看法是，這些公司已經不是老式那種擁有者及會計制度模糊不清的國際集團，替代而來的是新一代大型，運營良好，世界范圍中有競爭力的“超大型”公司。真的，這些公司的風險可能比他們所在國的政府都少。正如荷蘭經濟不會影響皇家殼牌石油公司的股價一樣，或是英國經濟與Vodafone并不緊連，希望是這些公司可能已經超越了其國內市場。

Some of the claims were over the top. In April 2007 Gazprom, anenergy firm controlled by the Kremlin, made a Dr-Evil-style predictionthat its market value would reach $1 trillion (ten times today’slevel). But there was substance too, exemplified by the wave ofcredible bids for Western companies before the credit crunch, such asthe multibillion approach by Vale, a Brazilian miner, for Xstrata.

有些叫法有些太過頭。在2007年月，由俄國政府控制的能源公司Gazprom宣布了一個惡魔式的預測，估計其市值將達到一萬億美金(是目前市值的10倍)。但是這些公司也有行動，在信貸緊縮前不斷出價收購西方公司，例如巴西的礦業公司Vale出手上千億美金收購 Xstrata就是實例。

EPAJust like the old days

跟過去一樣

Why then, have most emerging stockmarkets fallen by more thanWestern ones, particularly in the past month? There are some plausiblefundamental explanations. They may have been more overvalued to startwith. Even after their tumble, the aggregate price-earnings ratio is inline with developed markets, rather than at the discount that has beenthe historical norm. The composition of most indices also makes themvulnerable. Almost two-fifths of the earnings of the FTSEemerging-markets benchmark are from highly cyclical energy orbasic-materials companies—twice the share in developed markets—soearnings forecasts are falling faster than for developed peers. Mostindices under-represent mainland China, which has been relativelyresilient in recent weeks, on the grounds that it is hard forforeigners to invest there. And the top 20 companies account for justover a quarter of the FTSE emerging-markets index. Although that is ahigher proportion than in developed economies, it still leaves a longtail of smaller firms which may be less well run.

那么為什么多數新興股市下跌幅度超過西方國家的股市跌幅，特別是上個月的下跌呢?這里有些可信的基本解釋。這些新興股市開始時可能就是估值過高了。就是當他們暴跌后，其本益比才與發達國家的本益比接近，而不是歷史上常見的削價出售。多數這些市場的指數組成也使得這些市場更加不堪一擊。在FTSE新興市場指數中，幾乎五分之二的收益是高度緊跟經濟循環的能源或基本原材料公司，這是發達市場指數中的兩倍。所以收益預測下降比發達市場的要快。中國大陸在多數這些指數中的表現不足(而中國大陸在近幾周來相對強勁)，這是基于外國人很難在那里進行投資的觀點。在FTSE新興市場指數中，前20家公司占了超過四分之一的地位。雖然這比發達經濟多了許多，但仍剩下很多運營不如他們的很多較小公司。

As well as quirks of composition and valuation, the harsh reality isthat, as in previous crises, investors are not discriminating much.Most “mega-cap” companies have been penalised more heavily thanrich-world peers in the same industry. Credit-default swaps, a type ofinsurance against bankruptcy, suggest that the borrowing costs of bigemerging-markets firms have spiked along with those of their homecountries’ governments. This is despite the fact that emerging-marketindustrial companies in aggregate, like their governments, have lowerdebt levels than their Western equivalents. Shares of emerging-marketbanks, which with the exception of a few places such as Russia are inreasonable shape, have plunged in sympathy with their Western peers.

與指數組成及價值受到扭曲一樣，與以前的危機相同，殘酷的現實是投資人并沒有細細選擇。多數“超大型”公司已經受到的懲罰要比其富裕國家同類行業公司要重得多。信貸違約掉期合同，即防止破產的保險合同，表明大型新興市場公司的貸款費用以及其所在國政府的貸款費用已經大幅上升。盡管在事實上，這些新興市場制造業公司總體來講，與其政府一樣，債務水平都比其西方同類的要低。新興市場的銀行股價，除了幾個例外情況外，例如俄國，均處于合理狀態，但是也與其西方同行一起暴跌。

There may well have been structural improvements in emergingeconomies, but just now markets are having none of it. That couldpresent a buying opportunity. But if capital remains scarce for toolong, and big companies struggle to refinance their foreign debt,investors’ gut reaction could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

雖然新興經濟已經有了結構性改善，但是目前市場中并沒有反映這些。這就給出了買入機會。但是如果資本長期處于短缺狀態，大型公司掙扎著轉貸其外債，投資人的大膽舉動可能會變成自圓其說了。

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