China's trade

Surplus to requirements 順差的需要

Why is China’s trade surplus growing when its exports have collapsed?

為什么中國的出口大幅下降時(shí)，貿(mào)易順差卻在增長?考生如果怕自己錯過考試報(bào)名時(shí)間和考試時(shí)間的話，可以 免費(fèi)預(yù)約短信提醒，屆時(shí)會以短信的方式提醒大家報(bào)名和考試時(shí)間。

THIS week revised figures revealed that China overtook Germany in 2007 to become the world’s third-biggest economy. At the start of last year China also looked set to become the world’s biggest exporter, but a slump in exports in the final months of the year meant they remained smaller than Germany’s. China’s exports tumbled by 13% (in dollar terms) in the fourth quarter, leaving them 3% lower in December than a year earlier. Despite this, China’s trade surplus rose to a record $457 billion at an annual rate in the fourth quarter—50% bigger than in the same period of 2007. What is going on?

本周，修正后的數(shù)字顯示中國在2007年已經(jīng)超越德國成為世界第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。在去年初，中國也目標(biāo)成為世界上最大的出口國，但是年末數(shù)月出口的大幅下落意味著他們?nèi)匀慌旁诘聡蟆０凑彰涝獊碛?jì)算，中國的出口額在第四季度下降了13%，比一年前同期少了3%。盡管如此，中國的貿(mào)易順差在第四季度卻以全年增速上升到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的4570億美元，比2007年同期增長了50%。這其中到底有何玄機(jī)?

In the first half of 2008 China’s trade surplus did indeed shrink (see chart). But since then, although exports slumped, imports fell by much more—down by 21% in the 12 months to December. The slide in both exports and imports was exacerbated by the global credit freeze, which has made it harder for companies around the world to get letters of credit to guarantee payment. Imports were also dragged down by cheaper oil and commodity prices, and by weaker imports of materials and components used to make exports (over 50% of total imports).

2008年上半年，中國的貿(mào)易順差確實(shí)出現(xiàn)了縮水(見表)。但是自那以后，盡管出口大跌，但是進(jìn)口跌的更慘——到12月時(shí)，12個(gè)月內(nèi)下跌了21%。進(jìn)出口雙雙下滑由于受到全球信貸停滯影響而加劇。這是因?yàn)樾庞脙鼋Y(jié)導(dǎo)致全世界的公司更加難以獲得信用證從而保證支付。出口同樣也受到拖累，其下跌主要是由于更廉價(jià)的原油和商品價(jià)格，以及原材料和用于出口產(chǎn)品的部件進(jìn)口(占到進(jìn)口總量的50%以上)表現(xiàn)疲軟。

But a more worrying reason why China bought less from the rest of the world is that its domestic demand has weakened. Consumer spending and manufacturing investment have so far held up reasonably well, but construction—a big user of imported raw materials—has collapsed.

但是關(guān)于中國進(jìn)口下降的一個(gè)更令人憂慮的原因是：中國的國內(nèi)需求減小。消費(fèi)支出和生產(chǎn)投資目前的收縮尚且適當(dāng)，但是建筑業(yè)作為進(jìn)口原材料的使用大戶也出現(xiàn)了急劇下滑。

With most of the world in recession, China’s exports will continue to slide this year. Nomura forecasts a drop of 6%—the first annual decline for more than 25 years. Imports, on the other hand, are expected to increase. By mid-year, the government’s planned massive increase in infrastructure spending will boost imports of raw materials and machinery. If so, China’s trade surplus will shrink in 2009.

隨著全球大部分地區(qū)陷入衰退，中國的出口今年將繼續(xù)下滑。野村證券預(yù)測的下滑是6%，為25年來的首次下滑。另一方面，進(jìn)口預(yù)計(jì)將增長。到年中時(shí)，政府計(jì)劃的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投入大幅增長將會推動原材料和機(jī)械進(jìn)口。這樣的話，中國2009年的貿(mào)易順差將會縮水。

The collapse in exports and the consequent job losses in southern China have triggered speculation that the government might try to push down the value of the yuan. But not only would this provoke a protectionist backlash from America’s new government, it would also do little to help producers. China’s problem is weak foreign demand, not competitiveness. The best way for China to support its economy—and to help unwind global trade imbalances—is to bolster domestic demand.

出口劇減加上隨之而來的中國南方的失業(yè)會導(dǎo)致政府考慮人民幣貶值。但這將不僅激起美國府的保護(hù)主義反彈，對生產(chǎn)者也幫助甚小。中國的問題是在于疲軟的國外需求，而不是競爭力。支持中國經(jīng)濟(jì)乃至幫助全球貿(mào)易擺脫不平衡的方法，是加強(qiáng)內(nèi)需。

One piece of good news this week is that, following interest-rate cuts and the government’s scrapping of credit restrictions, total bank loans jumped by 19% in the 12 months to December, up from growth of 14% last summer. China is perhaps the only big economy where credit growth has heated up in recent months. If that is sustained, it could help to boost domestic spending.

本周的一個(gè)是：隨著減息和政府去除信貸限制，銀行信貸總額到12月的12個(gè)月中從去年夏天的14%猛增19%。中國也許是最近幾個(gè)月內(nèi)世界大經(jīng)濟(jì)體中唯一出現(xiàn)信貸增長加速的地方。如果增速持續(xù)，它將促進(jìn)內(nèi)需支出。

China certainly cannot rely on exports any more. Becoming the world’s biggest exporter will be of little comfort if global trade is spiralling downwards.

中國決不能再依賴出口。如果全球貿(mào)易持續(xù)下降，成為世界最大的出口國亦將無益。

China's trade

Surplus to requirements 順差的需要

Why is China’s trade surplus growing when its exports have collapsed?

為什么中國的出口大幅下降時(shí)，貿(mào)易順差卻在增長?

THIS week revised figures revealed that China overtook Germany in 2007 to become the world’s third-biggest economy. At the start of last year China also looked set to become the world’s biggest exporter, but a slump in exports in the final months of the year meant they remained smaller than Germany’s. China’s exports tumbled by 13% (in dollar terms) in the fourth quarter, leaving them 3% lower in December than a year earlier. Despite this, China’s trade surplus rose to a record $457 billion at an annual rate in the fourth quarter—50% bigger than in the same period of 2007. What is going on?

本周，修正后的數(shù)字顯示中國在2007年已經(jīng)超越德國成為世界第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。在去年初，中國也目標(biāo)成為世界上最大的出口國，但是年末數(shù)月出口的大幅下落意味著他們?nèi)匀慌旁诘聡蟆０凑彰涝獊碛?jì)算，中國的出口額在第四季度下降了13%，比一年前同期少了3%。盡管如此，中國的貿(mào)易順差在第四季度卻以全年增速上升到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的4570億美元，比2007年同期增長了50%。這其中到底有何玄機(jī)?

In the first half of 2008 China’s trade surplus did indeed shrink (see chart). But since then, although exports slumped, imports fell by much more—down by 21% in the 12 months to December. The slide in both exports and imports was exacerbated by the global credit freeze, which has made it harder for companies around the world to get letters of credit to guarantee payment. Imports were also dragged down by cheaper oil and commodity prices, and by weaker imports of materials and components used to make exports (over 50% of total imports).

2008年上半年，中國的貿(mào)易順差確實(shí)出現(xiàn)了縮水(見表)。但是自那以后，盡管出口大跌，但是進(jìn)口跌的更慘——到12月時(shí)，12個(gè)月內(nèi)下跌了21%。進(jìn)出口雙雙下滑由于受到全球信貸停滯影響而加劇。這是因?yàn)樾庞脙鼋Y(jié)導(dǎo)致全世界的公司更加難以獲得信用證從而保證支付。出口同樣也受到拖累，其下跌主要是由于更廉價(jià)的原油和商品價(jià)格，以及原材料和用于出口產(chǎn)品的部件進(jìn)口(占到進(jìn)口總量的50%以上)表現(xiàn)疲軟。

But a more worrying reason why China bought less from the rest of the world is that its domestic demand has weakened. Consumer spending and manufacturing investment have so far held up reasonably well, but construction—a big user of imported raw materials—has collapsed.

但是關(guān)于中國進(jìn)口下降的一個(gè)更令人憂慮的原因是：中國的國內(nèi)需求減小。消費(fèi)支出和生產(chǎn)投資目前的收縮尚且適當(dāng)，但是建筑業(yè)作為進(jìn)口原材料的使用大戶也出現(xiàn)了急劇下滑。

With most of the world in recession, China’s exports will continue to slide this year. Nomura forecasts a drop of 6%—the first annual decline for more than 25 years. Imports, on the other hand, are expected to increase. By mid-year, the government’s planned massive increase in infrastructure spending will boost imports of raw materials and machinery. If so, China’s trade surplus will shrink in 2009.

隨著全球大部分地區(qū)陷入衰退，中國的出口今年將繼續(xù)下滑。野村證券預(yù)測的下滑是6%，為25年來的首次下滑。另一方面，進(jìn)口預(yù)計(jì)將增長。到年中時(shí)，政府計(jì)劃的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投入大幅增長將會推動原材料和機(jī)械進(jìn)口。這樣的話，中國2009年的貿(mào)易順差將會縮水。

The collapse in exports and the consequent job losses in southern China have triggered speculation that the government might try to push down the value of the yuan. But not only would this provoke a protectionist backlash from America’s new government, it would also do little to help producers. China’s problem is weak foreign demand, not competitiveness. The best way for China to support its economy—and to help unwind global trade imbalances—is to bolster domestic demand.

出口劇減加上隨之而來的中國南方的失業(yè)會導(dǎo)致政府考慮人民幣貶值。但這將不僅激起美國府的保護(hù)主義反彈，對生產(chǎn)者也幫助甚小。中國的問題是在于疲軟的國外需求，而不是競爭力。支持中國經(jīng)濟(jì)乃至幫助全球貿(mào)易擺脫不平衡的方法，是加強(qiáng)內(nèi)需。

One piece of good news this week is that, following interest-rate cuts and the government’s scrapping of credit restrictions, total bank loans jumped by 19% in the 12 months to December, up from growth of 14% last summer. China is perhaps the only big economy where credit growth has heated up in recent months. If that is sustained, it could help to boost domestic spending.

本周的一個(gè)是：隨著減息和政府去除信貸限制，銀行信貸總額到12月的12個(gè)月中從去年夏天的14%猛增19%。中國也許是最近幾個(gè)月內(nèi)世界大經(jīng)濟(jì)體中唯一出現(xiàn)信貸增長加速的地方。如果增速持續(xù)，它將促進(jìn)內(nèi)需支出。

China certainly cannot rely on exports any more. Becoming the world’s biggest exporter will be of little comfort if global trade is spiralling downwards.

中國決不能再依賴出口。如果全球貿(mào)易持續(xù)下降，成為世界最大的出口國亦將無益。

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