The economy's stumble

經濟的絆足

Air pocket or second dip?

氣囊保護還是二次淪陷?

Oct 8th 2009 | WASHINGTON, DC

From The Economist print edition

A slump in September prompts thoughts of new stimulus

9月經濟大跌，新刺激方案提上日程

AFTER riding a wave of improvement since the spring, the economy stumbled in September according to the latest figures. Non-farm employment sank by 263,000, which was 62,000 more than in August, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 9.8%. Car sales tumbled as the federal “cash-for-clunkers” programme expired. Manufacturing activity cooled a bit.考生如果怕自己錯過考試報名時間和考試時間的話，可以 免費預約短信提醒，屆時會以短信的方式提醒大家報名和考試時間。

根據最新統計數據，從春季開始一路高歌猛進的美國經濟在9月大幅下跌。非農業職位減少了26.3萬個，降幅較8月增加了6.2萬個，失業率升至9.8%，增幅0.1%。汽車銷量在聯邦“舊車換現金”計劃結束后陡降。制造業略有放緩。

All this is probably an air pocket; overall economic output almost certainly began to rise in the third quarter of the year and employment will eventually follow. Leading indicators such as the stockmarket and new claims for unemployment benefits are signaling recovery. But it is taking a painfully long time. “We will need to grind out this recovery step by step,” acknowledged Barack Obama on October 3rd, the day after the job data were released. To add insult to injury, the Bureau of Labour Statistics concluded that the economy lost 824,000 more jobs in the year to March than it had originally thought. That would raise the recession’s toll so far to 8m, or 5.8% of the workforce. Assuming no further revisions, the recession now holds the honour of the most severe since the Second World War—exceeding even the 5% loss recorded in 1948.

這一切或許是如“氣囊”一般的保護性反應;今年第三季度，經濟總量確已開始上升，就業率最終也將隨之跟進。證券市場以及新失業津貼政策等主要指標都預示著經濟的回暖。然而，前路漫漫。“我們需要逐步恢復經濟，”巴拉克•奧巴馬在就業數據發布的第二天(10月3日)承認說。雪上加霜的是，勞動統計局表示，截至今年5月，美國經濟比預想的進一步減少了82.4萬個職位。這使得經濟衰退造成的總失業人數達到了800萬，占勞動力的5.8%。如果經濟停止進一步惡化，那這將是自二戰以來最嚴重的經濟衰退——其損失超過了1948年所記載的GDP的5%。

The bigger problem is that once employment growth resumes, it will probably remain anaemic. More than half of businesses say they will not return to pre-recession staffing levels until 2012, if ever, according to a September survey of chief financial officers by Duke University and CFO Magazine, a sister publication of The Economist. Fully 43% still plan to cull payrolls in the next 12 months.

更大的問題在于，就業一旦增加，它仍有可能持續疲軟。根據杜克大學及《CFO Magazine》雜志(與《The Economist》同屬一家公司)財務長在9月的一份報告，超過半數的公司表示即使其人員編制有所回升，但在2012年之前不會回到衰退前的水平。共有43%的公司計劃在未來的12個月中繼續裁減人手。

Mr Obama and his advisers are considering new measures to boost the economy. These will not be on the scale of this year’s $787 billion stimulus programme, which will in any case continue to inject money into the economy until the end of next year. More likely, he will seek to continue some provisions of the stimulus bill, such as extending unemployment benefits for laid-off workers and subsidies to allow them to keep their health insurance.

奧巴馬先生和他的顧問們正考慮新的經濟提振措施，但其規模將不及今年7870億美元的刺激計劃，后者于明年年底之前將不遺余力的不斷向經濟注入資金。可能性更大的是，他將延續刺激方案中的某些條款，如下崗職工失業津貼擴面以及健康保險補助等。

The retreat in car sales when cash-for-clunkers ended was a jarring reminder of the withdrawal symptoms that await when other stimulus measures, such as the homebuyer’s credit, are allowed to expire. But extending them would boost a soaring deficit that is estimated to have hit $1.4 billion in the fiscal year that ended on September 30th. Voters are nervous about red ink stretching away into the future, and even Mr Obama’s liberal supporters are turning up the heat. This week Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, said a value-added tax should be “on the table”. It may yet come to that, though introducing such a tax too early would risk choking off the recovery and creating a brand new tax that would give the president’s enemies a field-day. No one said his job was easy.

“舊車換現金”計劃結束所帶來的汽車銷量下降預示了在諸如購房貸款等刺激措施期滿結束后經濟所將經歷的退縮癥狀。但是，如果繼續實行此類措施，那將會為9月30日截止的本財政年帶來預計高達14億美元的財政赤字。選民們對未來源源不斷的財政赤字憂心忡忡，甚至是奧巴馬先生的自由派支持者都在火上澆油。本周，眾議院議長南希•佩洛西表示，征收增值稅應該 “提上日程”。增值稅遲早會付諸實施。然而，過早的出臺此類稅收將有可能阻礙經濟恢復，同時，征收新稅將會為總統的勁敵們提供反擊機會。大家都知道，奧巴馬先生過得不容易。

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